Arithmetics - Back to basics - Seriously

"Cast Arithmetics dis us in says BJP" screams the headline of todays "The Hindu". Seriously is the true import has been understood or they have used the message to explain away the results and move on with life as it is.

For the sake of Indian citizens, I wish they do and correct course.

What are the facts which are crying for understanding:

1. BJP led NDA has secured a little over 38% of the total votes plotted of 56%. Assuming 56% as a good sampling size, it translates to just over 20% of overall state population believes in them. There are 80% who do not believe in them, which includes some who do not care any way. 
2. BJP has also conceded that the situation was not much different at the Lok Shabha Elections of 2014; meaning they had only one fifth of the population with them when they gained power. 
3. Having gained power, if you any one had worked to add more to the tally ~ bring in more from the 80% group to their side, then this situation would not have emerged. 
4. Not only did they not act to bring from other side, they also exhibited their total lack of understanding of the electoral arithmetic and  planned to merge victorious on some whimsical grounds. This has undone them and will continue to hurt till they realise and change their overall approach.

What should be done:

• Law and order and freedom of action beliefs shall be respected and not be allowed to be politicised as they have peculiar way of impacting if you are in power. 

Sake Saath - Sabke Vikas, cannot remain as a mere sloganeering but must be seen to be translated to action. This should be seen to be done irrespective of who claims credit, for in the end once there is vikas, there are very few claimants to it and one of them is none other that our charismatic hard working PM.

Bihar Elections

There is so much which is happening in the Bihar elections. As an individual and as a 'Bahari' but Indian citizen, what do I look for as a positive outcome? My simple answer is ~ Outright victory for BJP. Why?

1. Because, after many generations, Bihar can again have an effective voice at the centre - not the obstructionist version. Congress did very little, except find specialists such as Babu Jagajivan Ram who could garner support and control at the centre but continue to ignore their home constituency. This is no longer possible. If you win the state elections and gain control at the centre, you better keep some of the promises made. 
2. For too long we have been in election mode and we need to return to governance. 
3. There are serious matters of national importance pending as the polity is fractured by individual and state level aspirations. For the better or worse, we need a central level party to look  at the nation as a complete unit and act.

Will the BJP win? 

I wager that they will. 

Why?

1. They have committed to work at booth level and ensure the first past the post work for them.
2. As this article brings out a new dimension - the kin of Bahari may be the swing factor. 
3. Caste does play even today - but can be overcome by other more mundane conditions. 
4. Anti incumbency.
5. The persona of our PM. You cannot discount the influence this will have on the rural electorate. Afterall they are seeing someone like this after Smt. Indira Gandhi and Sri Atalji.

Rejoinder on 8/11/2015

My predictions have proven wrong and way off the mark. The Mahaghatbandhan, has swept the elections. The fact that they might have had a vote differential of over 10% vote share in the final tally, speaks volumes at the alignment of the voters across ages, sexes and castes. No amount of rhetoric, could wean away the electorate from giving the leadership to Nitish. 

If there is one common factor that is common which cost the BJP Delhi and Bihar, it is the absence of  local tall leader. A bahari is not wanted by the electorate at the state level and that is the lesson which pollsters must retain from this election round.