Unlock June '21

 

Unlock in June ’21.

Since the count of going in for lock down to unlock is indeterminate, let us call the current unlock notifications being announced as Unlock ’21.

What are the primary considerations and do they satisfy the acceptable levels is the question? The ‘acceptable levels’ is set based on parameters gleamed from the learned and lived experience of the past year by us. It is corroborated with the data, findings from other nations which are shared by a few countries. Let us see what are the parameters and check whether we meet or not in respect of Chennai & surroundings.

1.    Case load should be substantially less. This is best seen by assessing the occupancy of ICU with covid cases and number of hospital beds availability for treating serious cases, including O2 consumption levels. Best norm is that the available capacity for all the factors should be over 75%.

2.    Net positivity rate with reasonable levels of testing using RT PCR tests, should be lower than 5%.

3.    Have we vaccinated persons adequately? This should be over 60% of the vulnerable and 30% of the 18-45 age group.

For Chennai we seem to be meeting the first two but are failing on the last question.

When you look at Chennai, one must take it account the adjoining districts with which close links exist. There are millions of daily commuters who criss-cross with in the districts. The table prepared from available date is shared below:

District
	First Dose Administered			Second Dose Administered		Population
	Nos.	% age of Population		Nos.	%age of Population
Chengalpattu	3,85,302	15%		89,183	3%	25,60,000
Chennai	19,87,345	28%		6,05,475	9%	71,00,000
Tiruvannamalai	73,970	3%		12,788	1%	24,71,000
Kancheepuram	1,40,084	12%		24,315	2%	11,70,000
Ranipet	1,10,040	9%		18,429	2%	12,10,000
Vellore	2,15,029	13%		61,645	4%	16,10,000
	29,11,770			8,11,835		1,61,21,000

 

Obviously, we are failing here. The granular date for the different age group show that we have not crossed the threshold of 50% for a single dose for the vulnerable group.

The effort to vaccinate has been humungous; but not adequate. The reasons are vaccine shortage and vaccine hesitancy. Unless you address these and bring up the vaccinated levels it is unwise to unlock. But since for other considerations unlock may happen, it is preferable that individuals take proper precautions. Else we will harm those yet to be vaccinated, which is predominantly children.