Unlock June '21

 

Unlock in June ’21.

Since the count of going in for lock down to unlock is indeterminate, let us call the current unlock notifications being announced as Unlock ’21.

What are the primary considerations and do they satisfy the acceptable levels is the question? The ‘acceptable levels’ is set based on parameters gleamed from the learned and lived experience of the past year by us. It is corroborated with the data, findings from other nations which are shared by a few countries. Let us see what are the parameters and check whether we meet or not in respect of Chennai & surroundings.

1.    Case load should be substantially less. This is best seen by assessing the occupancy of ICU with covid cases and number of hospital beds availability for treating serious cases, including O2 consumption levels. Best norm is that the available capacity for all the factors should be over 75%.

2.    Net positivity rate with reasonable levels of testing using RT PCR tests, should be lower than 5%.

3.    Have we vaccinated persons adequately? This should be over 60% of the vulnerable and 30% of the 18-45 age group.

For Chennai we seem to be meeting the first two but are failing on the last question.

When you look at Chennai, one must take it account the adjoining districts with which close links exist. There are millions of daily commuters who criss-cross with in the districts. The table prepared from available date is shared below:

District

 

First Dose Administered

Second Dose Administered

Population

Nos.

% age of Population

Nos.

%age of Population

Chengalpattu

   3,85,302

15%

    89,183

3%

    25,60,000

Chennai

 19,87,345

28%

 6,05,475

9%

    71,00,000

Tiruvannamalai

      73,970

3%

    12,788

1%

    24,71,000

Kancheepuram

   1,40,084

12%

    24,315

2%

    11,70,000

Ranipet

   1,10,040

9%

    18,429

2%

    12,10,000

Vellore

   2,15,029

13%

    61,645

4%

    16,10,000

 29,11,770

 8,11,835

 1,61,21,000

 

Obviously, we are failing here. The granular date for the different age group show that we have not crossed the threshold of 50% for a single dose for the vulnerable group.

The effort to vaccinate has been humungous; but not adequate. The reasons are vaccine shortage and vaccine hesitancy. Unless you address these and bring up the vaccinated levels it is unwise to unlock. But since for other considerations unlock may happen, it is preferable that individuals take proper precautions. Else we will harm those yet to be vaccinated, which is predominantly children.

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