Unlock June '21

 

Unlock in June ’21.

Since the count of going in for lock down to unlock is indeterminate, let us call the current unlock notifications being announced as Unlock ’21.

What are the primary considerations and do they satisfy the acceptable levels is the question? The ‘acceptable levels’ is set based on parameters gleamed from the learned and lived experience of the past year by us. It is corroborated with the data, findings from other nations which are shared by a few countries. Let us see what are the parameters and check whether we meet or not in respect of Chennai & surroundings.

1.    Case load should be substantially less. This is best seen by assessing the occupancy of ICU with covid cases and number of hospital beds availability for treating serious cases, including O2 consumption levels. Best norm is that the available capacity for all the factors should be over 75%.

2.    Net positivity rate with reasonable levels of testing using RT PCR tests, should be lower than 5%.

3.    Have we vaccinated persons adequately? This should be over 60% of the vulnerable and 30% of the 18-45 age group.

For Chennai we seem to be meeting the first two but are failing on the last question.

When you look at Chennai, one must take it account the adjoining districts with which close links exist. There are millions of daily commuters who criss-cross with in the districts. The table prepared from available date is shared below:

District
	First Dose Administered			Second Dose Administered		Population
	Nos.	% age of Population		Nos.	%age of Population
Chengalpattu	3,85,302	15%		89,183	3%	25,60,000
Chennai	19,87,345	28%		6,05,475	9%	71,00,000
Tiruvannamalai	73,970	3%		12,788	1%	24,71,000
Kancheepuram	1,40,084	12%		24,315	2%	11,70,000
Ranipet	1,10,040	9%		18,429	2%	12,10,000
Vellore	2,15,029	13%		61,645	4%	16,10,000
	29,11,770			8,11,835		1,61,21,000

 

Obviously, we are failing here. The granular date for the different age group show that we have not crossed the threshold of 50% for a single dose for the vulnerable group.

The effort to vaccinate has been humungous; but not adequate. The reasons are vaccine shortage and vaccine hesitancy. Unless you address these and bring up the vaccinated levels it is unwise to unlock. But since for other considerations unlock may happen, it is preferable that individuals take proper precautions. Else we will harm those yet to be vaccinated, which is predominantly children.

Letter to our beloved PM

 

Chennai

22^nd May 2021

 

Respected Prime Minister,

We were not happy to read the letter addressed to you by retired IAS and other senior officers of the government of India at this crisis hour[VB1] . As concerned citizens we would have appreciated if the letter had been drafted and issued differently. Here’s our take:

As the second wave of Covid 19 ravaged through state after state and the toll is mounting, we submit this appeal to you along with suggestions on the way forward starting with crisis management and Allocation of resources to related matters.

First and foremost is the integrity of data and the availability of accurate granular data for scientists, statisticians and administrators. Detail numbers as they come up throw up interesting Scenarios for able administrators who are competent. Talents across fields are available in plenty in our scientific pool including the administrative Cadre.

Transparent data stream will pave the way for a more proper and clear response.

The current lack of data across segments and the tendency to not recognise the importance for accurate and correct field data has been one of the main reasons in our opinion, for getting surprised repeatedly. We stress here that each one of us believe that you have our best interest at heart.

Our country is at a stage where it can ill afford to be surprised again and again and it is our appeal to you to take the lead and issue specific instructions to all agencies including state government to comply with data transparency.

The next most important action in our opinion, is to understand the vaccination scenario as it is unfolding factoring the supplies expected and present an action plan for orderly rollout. The current chaos and lack of accurate details from a reliable supply chain system is severely hampering the planning and implementation of even those groups who are efficient. Our country can legitimately boast of a huge vaccination network especially in rural areas with adequate vaccination centres and we have had past successes in effectively eliminating through vaccination viral diseases. This was possible by an active participation of the government steered from the centre, social organisations, corporate and local community chiefs. With this experience our suggestions for vaccination roll out are:

i.        It looks like we will have about 11 billion doses globally before December and India can access for sure what it can produce locally with the existing vaccine manufacturers. That is around 40million per month under a conservative estimate. Having vaccinated over 190 million as on date, the task is to find the balance 800 million doses at the earliest.

ii.        With just 360 million doses confirmed by this year end in the pipe line, there is going to be scarcity for some time.  Our suggestion is to scale up availability to the maximum to hit the estimated higher level announced. But that is not confirmed yet. Hence judicious allocation of the current scarce resource is the urgent need.

iii.        Given the vaccine hesitancy and accounting for wastage converting the bulk of this into jabs in the legible arms of the people is the utmost priority. Priority shall be above 45 years old and then below 45 but parents, work force. Efforts must be made to individually trace and vaccinate these persons breaking through hesitancy and logistical challenges. That is the best way to prepare for the third wave around the corner.

iv.        If this is done successfully before December, we would be much closer to achieving heard immunity accounting for substantial infected cases as well. We therefore recommend that this Administration of doses should be done through microlevel planning and rollout. Each of the collectors should get specific instruction and ensure roll out. They should also pick out in the eligible category uninfected and vaccinate as was done in the polio administration 

v.        Web interface at the administration level, user level from individual citizens, have been a challenge given the prevailing lack of computer literacy. We recommend therefore to appoint short-term contract employees sourced with the support of big IT companies and train them for both the admin and as well as support the citizens. They should be posted on a war footing. PSU employees and Railway employees who are already exposed to computer should be instructed suitably.

vi.        PMO shall have a dashboard with real-time updates on the vaccination roll out for each of the 719 districts. We can deploy the same mechanism which we do for monitoring of the counting of votes at booth level for a nation as a whole.

vii.        Respected Prime Minister you have a huge following in our nation and you should constantly come out and advocate for vaccination of all eligible citizens. You should also assure those who have to await for the vaccine suitably. Political costs can be managed by you as you have done previously. You should rope in all the MPs irrespective of political affiliations and emphasise the responsibility of the  elected representatives to support this action.

There are other pressing matters which we would like to bring to your attention. We would so in time. But this is the priority now and the only priority for you as our leader. Others can manage the rest for the time being.

---

 [VB1]

Technology - a handy tool at crisis situations to tackle Pandemic

Technology confronting COVID 19 

As I listened to the piece from CNN on the Black Plague of 14th century (1347 - 1351) having traveled to Europe and other parts along the old silk route which is strikingly similar to the one COVID 19 is spreading, I was glad that we are in a better connected world than during those medieval times. 

I had also never thought that I would contemplate use of the term 'Pandemic' to describe the advent of sweeping reach of new technology platforms and user based apps. Corona Virus or COVID 19 has enabled this a possibility. Pandemic spread of App based solutions are helping us combat the virus in myriad ways.

As I read a detailed piece by Anantha Krishnan titled 'China's high-tech battle' on the use of Technology or App based solutions to help face and help tackle the menace of this Pandemic created by COVID 19, I forgot about Privacy or related scares of the technology platforms and was keen to embrace more of this and also encourage. 

What made the difference?

For one, the App based Pandemic can spread faster than any virus which is something akin to snail mail. Remember the old days when you write and post a letter and it reaches the destination by various modes of transport in a weeks time at the most. 

Secondly location based inputs from users can map the situation on to dash board and displayed for public and managing officials of various hands of the organisations which are working to combat the menace in many fronts. Real time updates comes in handy in such alarming cases as any person who has experienced a similar situation as in a flood or storm or earth quake. 

And food delivery app which has developed the technique of handing the delivery of hygienic quality food at customers premises is the ultimate feather in the cap. You can stay isolated with out any access to provisions or fresh produce, but get what you want (or what is recommended based on your conditions) at your door step.

I conclude with one more instant of the excellent use of the technology. ` Warning to the user by a colour code based indication on your smart phone app, indicating the possibility of you being susceptible to catch the virus. Amazing.

Are'nt we all glad that we are in this technology driven era?